Polls Show Trump Has Slight Lead in Economic Management

Donald Trump

With both Biden and Trump showing their cards in their nomination speeches, the relatively small gap in the polls on economic issues portrays a significant knowledge gap.

There are a lot of issues at stake in the upcoming U.S. election, set for November 3, and we’ve never seen a race so polarized on so many issues as we now face. One of the biggest ones, or at least an issue that should be seen that way, is economic, both the macroeconomic side, the health of the economy as a whole, and at the microeconomic or personal level, how the policies of each candidate will affect our personal financial situation.

The most recent polling shows Trump only minimally ahead of Biden on the economy, on the macro side, even though this number should be far more one-sided than this, provided that we properly understand of how each candidate’s policies are expected to affect it.

President Trump’s acceptance speech was very hard hitting on this and the other major issues, but that really wasn’t much of a feat given how clearly terrible Biden’s plan is for the economy, with Biden being no more of a punching bag, just sitting their stationary and not being able to fend off any real attack. He got one last Thursday night from Trump, who unleashed a barrage upon a bag with Biden’s face on it.

It wasn’t as one-sided as Trump made it though, at least from the perspective of economics, with Trump relying so substantially on his protectionist ideals. It is too much to expect a complete sweep for him on the economic issues, and even though Trump delivers this in other areas, protectionism actually does harm to an economy, in a way that Trump does not quite get.

In reading our analyses on this election here and elsewhere, it might seem that we have a political stake in this, the way that we find so much fault with Biden’s platform and the Democratic Party in general, and while it seems that every media outlook is strongly partisan toward one party or another, we are above that and owe our readers a more considered response on all the issues apart from siding with one or the other party due to party partisanship.

We are indeed partisan, but partisan only to reason and sensibility, and when we find fault with a particular issue, we share our concerns. We’ve always spoken out against protectionism, because it merits it, and Trump relying so substantially on this does disturb us.

This all comes down to pure economic study, understanding how trade benefits countries, and the understanding we need here does not require much study, just a basic idea of the advantages present, the gains in efficiency that free trade brings, gains that are ignored by Trump.

Biden does not seem to have much of a clue about this and has failed to take advantage of this opportunity to rebut Trump. Biden’s campaign is not even engaged in substantive issues, where their battle cry remains focused on Trump’s alleged focus on “hate and divisiveness,” in addition to other baseless accusations, which is the response we heard from both Joe Biden and Kamala Harris in their rebuttal to Trump’s nomination speech.

This is not even a fathomable objection, not even one that is understandable. They seem to want to point to the worst elements in our society that may harbor hate, and then for some bizarre and unexplained reason, blame Trump for it, like they try to blame everything on him, with no justification or even explanation required.

They are even blaming Trump for the uptick in rioting lately, just telling us that this is happening on “his watch,” in spite of this clearly occurring in Democratic run cities who have refused to enforce the law effectively, to uphold their duty to their people. Trump has offered help, but these cities have refused it, and then as the insurgents do their worst virtually unopposed, it’s Trump’s fault.

This is completely stupid, but just one among many senseless attacks of theirs, and it is absolutely incredible that Biden has maintained his lead in the polls espousing such nonsense. This goes well beyond your being a Democrat or a Republican, a liberal or a conservative, it comes down to whether or not you have a working mind, and the Democrats have now lost theirs completely.

The stupidity of Biden and Harris knows no bounds, as they are campaigning primarily on the idea that although America has harbored a lot of racism throughout its history, beginning well prior to the founding of the country, and while this has diminished gradually over the years, decades, and centuries, the fact that many remain racist is Trump’s fault somehow. Of course it is, if everything you dislike is just blamed on him, racism and everything else.

Candidates Will Always Be Biased, and It’s Up to Us to Sort it Out

It is to be expected that candidates will cross the line a little when it comes to promoting their own agendas, where they surely are going to be biased and we expect this, and the task then becomes voters needing to sift through the bias on each side and decide who is most worthy to lead us, who will promote our interests and well-being the most.

Trump’s protectionism does make us cringe, and we do not stand with him on this issue, and on other ones as well, such as his zeal for a vaccine, portraying the speed that is being used as a matter of genius, not recklessness. The reason why it normally takes so much longer isn’t because we haven’t been smart enough, it’s been that we’ve been at least smart enough to want to test it more first.

Sadly, the bar for vaccine safety has been far too low anyway, not even bothering to do real scientific trials but instead ones rife with bias, and when vaccines come out looking unsafe, they look to censor and discredit. We at least take the time to work out the bigger and more immediate risks though, like a bunch of people dying or being significantly harmed from it, and even this is being set aside now.

What Trump and other proponents of protectionism misunderstand is that more jobs and a better economy are not one in the same, and while employment levels are an important component of an economy, there are other factors, particularly economic efficiency, which is what this is all about actually.

When the President isn’t wise to these things and his opponent has no idea about any of it, this tells us that we not only have a knowledge gap among the people but at the highest levels as well. Trump did manage to rally a lot of blue-collar workers the last time around, and this actually was decisive in allowing him to rise to power, but these people don’t realize that policies like this seek to actually pick their pockets, to place additional tax on what they buy and see them none the wiser.

We actually see the effects of this even hurt those who it seems to help. We may slap tariffs on a number of things, including what your company sells, and this may make you happy initially. You then see your foreign competitors still beating you on value, leaving you with no real benefit, but this harm does fall upon consumers and the economy, where their dollars get spread thinner, and the ones that do business with you now have less to spend on what you sell.

Taxation in any form stifles us both at the macroeconomic and microeconomic levels, as it sucks money out of the economy, leaving us all with less, the opposite of what economic stimulus does. This is de-stimulus, and make no mistake, tariffs are taxes, as surely as other taxes are.

This is therefore not completely one-sided, but when we look at the overall economic plans with both, it is Biden that is seeking to contract our economy the most, by far. This is what makes polls that have Trump ahead by only 5 points so noteworthy, as this tells us now little the people know about this issue, and anyone who believes that Biden and Harris would be better for our economy than Trump and Pence is deciding on the issue with a serious lack of understanding.

We need only speak of the near-term economic consequences of each candidate’s plans, and don’t even need to invoke the long-term consequences involved, as utterly disturbing as Biden’s plan is. Politicians are often accused of mortgaging our future, nowhere near enough mind you, and Biden’s plan is one of utter madness, and the level of overspending he plans will surely greatly accelerate our ultimate economic demise if he is allowed to put his ideas into practice.

This is what concerns us the most, by far, but we can leave that aside and just look at what people actually do care about substantially, where the economy is headed during the 4 years that we are looking to appoint these men for.

People seem to understand that Biden is for increasing taxes, while Trump wants to put taxes down further, and even though Trump’s tariffs will likely stay in place, overall there is no comparison between the two when it comes to taxation levels, and even Biden himself would heartily agree.

The disconnect occurs when taking this information and looking to project its economic impact, where the general population, including Biden and his advisors, don’t have much of an idea how taxes even affect the economy. Biden even has the gall to tell us that his plan will bring more net jobs, even though employment levels were the highest in the history of the country prior to our deciding to shut so many of them down lately.

It’s now become much more challenging to get back to the good times thanks to the damage to the economy as a whole that this shutdown brought us, and in the aftermath, this is no time for amateurs who lack the proper understanding of how higher taxes affects the labor market and the economy, not knowing how certain this harming our economy will be, or the extent of the damage that they are calling for with their additional taxation.

We would have loved to see a lot more of this brought to light by Trump during his campaign, and while Trump did mention this in passing in his speech, he missed a great opportunity to educate Americans on just how harmful Biden’s additional taxes will be upon our economy, at a time where we are in such a fragile situation, in the biggest recession since the 1930’s.

It’s a simple idea to understand actually, and the cry should not have been that Biden’s campaign is made in China, as that lacks real substance and depends on Trump’s false idea that more protectionism is better for the country, it should be that Biden is going all out for anti-economic stimulus.

We Need to Beware Anti-Economic Stimulus, Especially Now

We all are aware of the need for economic stimulus given the battle that we are now in, and Trump needs to better position his more lenient taxation policies as stimulative, which they actually are. Biden’s higher taxes need to be portrayed as anti-stimulative, taking us in the wrong direction on this issue, one that we have already used an unprecedented monetary and fiscal response against, with this battle still raging.

The Biden campaign’s response to the little that Trump has accused them for their higher tax policies is to accuse Trump of harming Social Security with his lower taxes, which truly demonstrates their lack of understanding of the issue. Lower taxes overall, and especially the higher employment levels that it leads to, raises the amount in Social Security taxes, because more people are working and more pay into it.

We regret having to call the Democrats a band of fools, but they leave us no alternative, and to neglect doing so would require that we join them in their intellectual bankruptcy. Republicans historically have had a better understanding of economics overall, but the understanding gap has never been this wide, not even close.

It will be a painful 4 years indeed if Biden wins, even though we do need to place this into context as presidents really do not have anywhere near as much power as a lot of people think, including the candidates themselves.

Trump’s attempts to circumvent Congress with issues such as building the wall or helping out with additional unemployment benefits through executive orders show us the extreme outer limits of presidential power, a role that serves not to promote change as much as it does to restrict it through veto power.

Trump spoke the truth when he told us that he has managed to keep his promises, and that task is a lot harder than it sounds given that a lot of the things that he has done was not just a matter of his using his pen unilaterally, and this especially applies to changes in tax legislation.

From an economic perspective, we can only hope that if Biden gets elected, he will not keep his promises, and whether or not he will be able to do very much all comes down to what happens in the Senate.

Trump’s chances are at least improving lately though, and he is no stranger to needing to come from behind, as he did pull off such a feat the last time around. There is still over 2 months left to go in the campaign though, with the debates still to come, debates that will be a complete mismatch and see Biden at best getting pounded by Trump and perhaps pounding on himself as well.

Unfortunately, the first debate isn’t scheduled until September 29, past the time where many will have already mailed in their ballots, and mail-in ballots have exploded this year. Many will be deprived of seeing a single debate, if it does go off as scheduled. We can easily see why the Democrats have been so in favor of voting by mail, as they see their fortunes decline and want people to hurry up and vote for Joe before he falls down. This will make things all the more challenging for Trump.

When we look at the polls in key background states, with Trump needing to win almost all of them, he has caught up quite a bit lately. Biden’s camp has laid down the gauntlet, and while he is now seeing to back away from some of his previous comments, that he really doesn’t want anarchy to reign that much for instance, and finally seeing a Democrat speaking out against the rioting instead of trying to support it and blame it all on Trump, they are still blaming it on Trump but are now suggesting that this may not be such a good thing.

As long as they refuse to clean it up, as long as they so lustily revile Republicans just trying to protect federal assets by opposing people who wish to burn their buildings down, as long as they continue to refuse federal help and do not even make much of an effort to handle this themselves, this will remain in the liability column for them. People are getting more and more tired of this, and as they do, this will cause them to move more and more away from Biden and toward Trump, who actually wants to help this.

It’s too bad that people don’t understand the economic issues at play here anywhere near as well, and surely the Trump campaign has capable economists on staff who should be enlightening Trump and his handers more. The risk of losing jobs to China isn’t the big issue here, it is Biden’s taxes that will do us in a lot more, and we need to be a lot more aware of this lest we feel his blade later when he is given this sword to use on our economy.

This is not even hard to understand, as higher taxes result in a decrease of overall production due to people having less money to spend now that a portion has been taken away from them. Less production means less of a need for labor to produce it, and the contraction of the labor market itself adds to the overall level of economic contraction, where we end up at an equilibrium that has both less money in our economy and less people in the labor force, the two main criteria of measuring the health of an economy.

While Trump is being stupid about tariffs, Biden’s being stupid about taxation in general is the more harmful of the two by a long shot. Trump did tell us that Biden’s higher taxes will “collapse our economy,” but he needs to not just say it, but explain it.

Biden claims that his tax hikes will only affect the wealthy, but he obviously has no clue about corporate taxes, thinking that this only applies to rich corporations and doesn’t affect consumers. Even people living in cardboard boxes get smacked by this, as does our economy in general, and Biden’s utter lack of knowledge about economics is dangerously concerning, given that he wants to be President.

We almost wrote Trump’s chances off, but we’re feeling much better about his chances now, as we see Biden’s campaign self-destruct in a way that has been more than we ever even could have hoped not long ago, surprisingly bad even for him.

This battle may now be far from over, and may even be just starting. Hopefully we understand the economic consequences of this election well enough to at least be in a somewhat informed decision to decide on it, and not be distracted by nonsense to the degree we have so far. We can only hope that in the time left, the light will shine more on these candidates, to see them more in the light of day, to see where they actually want to take us, and then and only then can we even be in a position to make an informed choice.

John Miller

Editor, MarketReview.com

John’s sensible advice on all matters related to personal finance will have you examining your own life and tweaking it to achieve your financial goals better.

Contact John: [email protected]

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