BLS Sees U.S. Adding 5.9 Million Jobs Through 2035 as Employment Growth Slows

The U.S. economy is projected to add 5.9 million jobs from 2025 to 2035, but the pace of employment growth is expected to slow markedly from the previous decade. In its latest long-run projections, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said total employment is expected to rise from 170.3 million in 2025 to 176.2 million in 2035, an increase of 3.5% that falls well short of the 10.9% growth recorded over 2015 to 2025.

The topline message is not that the labor market is expected to weaken in a cyclical sense over the next few quarters. Instead, BLS is describing a slower long-term expansion shaped by demographics, industry structure and technology. The population is aging, some sectors are already mature, and artificial intelligence is beginning to alter the mix of jobs that employers are likely to need. Those forces do not point to a collapse in work. They point to a labor market that keeps growing, but at a more selective pace.

According to the BLS employment projections release, healthcare and social assistance are expected to do much of the heavy lifting. At the same time, AI-linked electricity demand, data infrastructure and technical services are projected to support growth in other parts of the economy, even as automation pressures weigh on some clerical, sales and production roles.

Slower job growth reflects a maturing economy

BLS framed the 2025-35 outlook as a decade of continued expansion, just not one that repeats the stronger job creation seen in the past. The projected 3.5% rise in total employment translates to 5.9 million additional jobs, but that is a much smaller gain than the previous ten-year period delivered. In broad terms, the slowdown reflects the fact that some of the easiest sources of labor-force and employment expansion are becoming less powerful.

Long-run employment projections are not built in the same way as the monthly payroll report, and they are not meant to predict each turn of the business cycle. They are best read as a structural picture of where labor demand is likely to trend if the economy evolves broadly along expected lines. That distinction matters here. The release does not imply that the labor market is headed for a prolonged slump. Rather, it suggests that future gains are likely to be harder won, more concentrated in specific sectors, and increasingly influenced by the way technology changes production and service delivery.

Even with the slower headline pace, BLS still sees broad expansion across the decade. Utilities is projected to be the fastest-growing major industry sector, with employment up 9.8%, though its relatively small base means that translates into just 58,800 new jobs. Professional, scientific and technical services is projected to grow 8.6%, adding 926,700 jobs as demand rises for research, development, consulting and other services tied partly to AI adoption and digital systems.

That combination helps explain why the headline growth rate can slow while some industries still post strong gains. The sectors expanding most rapidly are not always the ones with the biggest starting workforces. Conversely, some large sectors that once helped drive job growth are expected to flatten out or shrink modestly, which pulls down the overall number even when selected industries remain healthy.

Healthcare drives the gains while AI reshapes the mix

The clearest engine of employment growth remains healthcare and social assistance. BLS projects the private healthcare and social assistance sector will add more than 2.2 million jobs from 2025 to 2035, accounting for about 37% of all projected job gains in the economy. That sector is expected to grow 9.5%, making it the second-fastest-growing major industry sector after utilities.

The logic behind that projection is straightforward. An older population needs more medical care, long-term support and related services, while the prevalence of chronic conditions such as heart disease, cancer and diabetes also raises demand. BLS highlighted services for the elderly and persons with disabilities as the single detailed industry expected to add the most jobs, with projected growth of 625,400 positions over the decade.

The occupational picture tells a similar story. Healthcare support occupations and healthcare practitioners and technical occupations are projected to be the two fastest-growing major occupational groups, rising 13.3% and 8.0%, respectively. Combined, those two healthcare groups are expected to account for almost one-third of all new jobs created through 2035. Nurse practitioners are projected to be the single fastest-growing detailed occupation, with employment up 41.0%.

Artificial intelligence, meanwhile, shows up in the BLS outlook as both a source of opportunity and a source of displacement. On the growth side, BLS said rising electricity demand tied partly to AI and data-center infrastructure should support utilities employment and help lift solar, wind and grid-related activity. The computing infrastructure providers, data processing, web hosting and related services industry is projected to grow 25.1%, adding 120,400 jobs.

AI is also expected to boost demand in professional, scientific and technical services and in a range of computer and mathematical occupations. Data scientists and computer and information research scientists both rank among the fastest-growing detailed occupations, as businesses continue adopting digital tools and AI systems across the economy.

But the same technology also cuts the other way. BLS said productivity gains from generative AI and related automation tools may limit demand for some jobs in arts and media, and are likely to reduce demand for several office and administrative support occupations. That occupational group is projected to decline 4.0% and lose 752,100 jobs over the decade, the largest drop of any major occupational group. Sales and related occupations and production occupations are also expected to contract modestly.

What the projections mean for workers and investors

For workers, the report reinforces a theme that has been building for years: the strongest long-term demand is clustering in care, science, technical fields and infrastructure linked to electrification and digital capacity. That does not mean everyone needs to become a software engineer or a nurse practitioner. It does mean the center of gravity in the labor market appears to be moving toward occupations tied either to demographic need or to complex systems that are harder to automate.

For businesses and investors, the projections offer a map of where labor constraints and wage pressure may emerge. If healthcare is expected to generate such a large share of total job growth, staffing shortages and training capacity in that sector will matter even more. If AI-related infrastructure raises demand for electricity and specialized technical work, then utilities, grid investment, data-center support and some advanced services may carry more weight in medium-term economic planning than they did a decade ago.

The projections also serve as a reminder that AI’s economic effects are unlikely to be uniform. The technology can create demand for new kinds of work even as it trims the need for repetitive support roles. That is one reason BLS released new AI exposure categories alongside the 2025-35 projections. The agency is signaling that technology is no longer a side note in long-run labor analysis; it is becoming one of the defining variables shaping how occupations are expected to evolve.

Still, BLS itself cautions against reading the estimates with false precision. Long-range projections inevitably involve uncertainty, and the agency says they should be interpreted more for the direction and relative size of change than for the exact endpoint. Economic shocks, policy changes, immigration trends, healthcare delivery models and the real-world pace of AI adoption could all change the eventual outcome.

Even with that caveat, the broad message is clear. BLS expects the United States to keep adding jobs through 2035, but more slowly than it did in the previous decade. The biggest gains are expected to come from healthcare and social assistance, while AI is set to push labor demand higher in energy, data and technical fields and lower in some clerical and routine roles. That mix does not describe a stagnant labor market. It describes a more targeted one, where growth increasingly depends on where structural demand is strongest.