In spite of falling further and further behind in the polls, the betting action still gives Donald Trump a 40% chance of re-election. It’s much closer to zero in reality though.
It would be reasonable to think that if you were running for re-election as President of the United States, Joe Biden might be your dream opponent. By all appearances, Biden is either fast approaching senility or may already be there. In his prime, he may have been able to put up a decent fight, but he is only a shell of his former self, which wasn’t much to start with.
When asked if he had been tested for cognitive decline, Biden boasted that he gets tested for this all the time, not even having the presence of mind to realize how damning a statement that is. He didn’t share the results, but needing this done all the time speaks badly enough and would only be indicated if he actually were that close to losing it.
Biden’s claim to fame is being the sidekick for Barack Obama for 8 years, although Vice Presidents are in a corner that is rarely heard from very much, unless you take bribes like Spiro Agnew or are made fun about as much as Dan Quayle was. The goal is to pick someone that won’t get in the way, and Joe Biden certainly didn’t, although this time around, there is no one to hold his hand, at a time where he looks like he needs both hands held.
Vice Presidents are often given a leg up in presidential nomination races, but Biden won the nomination more by default than anything. Bernie Sanders may have had more vigor, but his ideas were a little too out there for mainstream Democrats, at the time at least. Given how much he is widely disliked by the party, he didn’t really stand much of a chance, leaving them stuck with Biden.
Get ready to start calling him President Biden though, and prepare for fireside chats involving such topics as how much Joe likes to have kids sit on his lap and rub the hair on his legs or talking about the geese in his yard. Biden makes Dan Quayle look like he belongs on Mount Rushmore, because while Quayle didn’t do that well in front of the camera, he was downright stately compared to Biden.
Unless you are a regular viewer of Fox News, you will miss all the times that Biden has made such a spectacle of himself, as all of the other media outlets do their best to try to hide Biden’s shortcomings. Fox displays all of his gaffes with conviction though, but they don’t have the ratings that all of the left-wing media outlets combined have, and this election in particular is being decided on that basis.
Biden would probably get knocked out in the first round if the battle was just between him and Trump, but given that all Biden needs to do is stand in his corner while CNN, MSNBC, and the rest gang up on the President and beat the living daylights out of him, this isn’t one that Trump has a chance to win.
The fact that Trump has virtually no hope of winning does not just come from how far behind he is in the polls, or even how horrible the electoral college count looks, which tells a far grimmer story, it is that the road forward will have him continue to be mercilessly beat up by the leftist media, who do not even pretend to hide their hatred.
The weight of these attacks has Trump’s chances fading more and more and Biden’s chances of winning almost certain now, because we know that they won’t stop until the final bell rings. They are even suggesting that Trump will have to be forcibly removed from the While House after he loses, as they don’t miss a chance to attack him, no matter how preposterous.
This has riled up enough hatred of Trump among enough Americans to virtually guarantee that he’ll get the boot, perhaps even by a landslide. The fact that this hatred isn’t based upon much substance doesn’t even matter, as this how powerful the media has become, the way that they have shaped the views of voters to see every move the man makes as being wrong without question.
In the early days of his presidency, the best they could do is accuse Trump of being a racist because he wanted to limit immigration, and it just happened that it was Mexicans that he wanted to cut down on entering the country illegally. It’s not that people were being kept out based upon race, but instead based upon the law, but these things don’t matter if you are incited to anger enough to stop thinking.
Trump still prefers law and order, which has him considered even more of a racist these days, with his daring to wish to better control of the shameful level of insurgency that is going on throughout the country of late. He’s one of the only people brave enough to speak out on this, because if you oppose insurgency, you are surely a racist, even though this gang is very racially co-mingled.
There Is More to Worry About for the Stock Market than Just Joe Biden
The left-wing media is not only deciding elections these days, they are also doing their best to oppose law and order and lend support to radicals who intend the destruction of America as we know it. Anyone who opposes the heinous actions and ridiculous demands of this extremist mob is deemed a racist, and by this standard, Donald Trump is eminently deserving.
Their boots are firmly upon President Trump’s neck and they are not removing them until he is gone. When we look to speculate on his chances, something near and dear to the stock market, we need to consider where this is all going, and it’s nearly impossible to imagine him escaping this with his Presidential life.
We now have a wave of what could be called the antithesis of Trump, who sit on the opposite end of him on the pander or not pander continuum, where somehow, the unfortunate death of one man has opened the floodgates of the most extreme political views the country has ever faced by far which are now being accepted widely with arms shockingly wide.
This is a real shame, as the death of George Floyd could have been used constructively to promote the more honest discussion of racial discrimination in America that was so sorely need, but instead, this issue is being used as a means to transform the country into something hideous.
Reasonableness always needs to be our guide, but what is being demanded by these zealots instead extends the limits of unreasonableness, which goes well beyond just getting rid of the police and taking down every statue of white people out there, with some even demanding that statues of Jesus be taken down as well just because he is white. Abe Lincoln is on the hit list as well, the man who is credited with freeing the black people from slavery. They are taking down statues of people who have even dedicated their lives to the welfare of minorities, just because of their race. That’s no way to make racism go away.
The real goal though goes well beyond this and involves a mixture of anarchy and extremist socialism, where laws get set aside completely and we also embrace socialist goals so hard core that they make Elizabeth Warren look moderate.
Trump’s Independence Day speech, to be considered racist, requires that we first create a new race, where extreme political views now qualify as one. “We are now in the process of defeating the radical left. The Marxists. The anarchists. The agitators. The looters, and people who in many instances, have absolutely no clue what they are doing.”
In spite of a few minor victories, this war is not being won, and are standing by and doing so little has set a very dangerous precedent. The fact that the bar for racism is so low that remarks like this would be considered to be so racist by so many is perhaps the most dangerous thing of all to emerge from this.
Trump has been one of the few voices that are speaking out about this outrage, although the more outraged he becomes, the more people are outraged with him. To turn his opposing chaos in America into a sharp weapon against him shows the massive power of the media’s influence perhaps like nothing else, although this would not work anywhere near as well if their targets were not so soft. That’s the part that should scare us the most by far, not so much from their daring to peddle things this outrageous, but because it is working so well.
The media claimed that Trump was a racist just because the KKK preferred him over Hilary Clinton, and we knew how low the bar was for him all the way back then, but it only make sense that the far right would prefer a guy who leans that way, just like it makes sense that the far left prefer Democrats because they lean that way naturally. The difference is that the Democrats have shown a willingness to join them, instead of distancing themselves from radicals as Trump did, enough to support being rid of the police, and seeing those who oppose them as, of course, racists.
That’s as far to the left as you get, as even the communists believe in law and order, instead of believing that anarchy is the ultimate expression of power to the people. This does not convey power to them though, it just turns life into a battleground where it is rob or be robbed, kill or be killed. This is what they want, and we’re not even shocked that the Democrats want to give it to them, or at least have visions of everyone working out the problem of crime in a fairy tale way by just joining hands and agreeing to be nice. This part should worry us a lot as well, as we should prefer our politicians to not live in a world of fantasy.
The specter of this should scare the stock market more than it has, and the real fear needs not to be about needing experiments in anarchy like they are planning in Minneapolis, it is more about the Democratic party leaving anything resembling mainstream politics behind and being guided a whole lot more by people that would have even make traditional communist hair stand on end.
We can live without our statues, we can live without Uncle Ben and Aunt Jemima, we can live without cartoons trying to portray cops as non-racist, but we cannot live without law enforcement, because with no enforcement, there is no law. This appears to be just a front for much bigger goals, and when you have been influential enough to actually have a major American city plan on getting rid of law enforcement altogether, there’s no telling how much more influence you can have.
Their extreme political demands that are attached to the defund the police moment are insidious as well, and instead of being kept on the far fringe as has been the case all along, they are now on the main stage holding hands with Democrats. This is also serving to bolster their party’s radical elements, who don’t have to step all that further to the left to shake hands with this gang.
The Dream Team of Anti-Capitalists is Now Being Assembled
The stock market doesn’t just have to worry about a new president that is licking his chops for the opportunity to punish them, although he’s just the front man, where the people behind the curtain on this stage are considerably more dangerous. Imagine the secretarial pool that he will be drawing on, people like Warren, Sanders, and Ocasio-Cortez, among others.
They are going to be putting together a dream team of the radical element of the party, by looking at who Biden’s senior advisors are, and this current movement is tweaking them up a few notches just like it is with everyone else in the party. These folks were so much further to the left to start with, and nowadays, Ocasio-Cortez has added the view that we need to completely defund the police to her arsenal, and Bernie Sanders really wants to grab corporate profits now, suggesting that corporations pay the people first before they pay shareholders.
Someone needs to tell Sanders that companies can just discontinue dividends to get around this, as he really seems to know little about how stocks work, but he knows enough to have it in for the stock market plenty. Elizabeth Warren despises both the wealthy and companies, and we need to be particularly worried as stock market participants over surcharges on securities transactions.
Using the stock market as a whipping boy will surely put a look of satisfaction on their faces, but not on those who stake so much to the long side of stocks and will feel the lashes themselves.
Black lives may matter to the Democrats, but a lot of things won’t, especially the economy, which is bracing itself for an onslaught. Joe Biden as President can do plenty damage though, especially with these folks in his cabinet, but the lethal blow would be if the Dems can tie it up in the Senate and have Biden’s VP break all ties.
It’s almost a given that the Republicans will get at least 50 seats, but that won’t be enough as this would bring on the tie breaking procedure, with the Senate lost. Getting to 51 is therefore crucial, and while the polls suggest that they will most likely end up with 52, there is a lot that hangs in the balance, including the fact that the Republicans don’t dance like a Russian bear when insurgents play their tunes.
While Trump may lay on his back on the mat, barely able to open his eyes, the left-wing media won’t be letting up on him anytime soon, and their Fourth of July bashing of him demonstrates this. As the election gets closer though, they will surely turn their attention and their weapons upon the Senate race, seeking to infect these candidates with their blatant bias.
If the Republicans fail with this mission, the floodgates will open, and Washington will be taking such a hard-left turn that we need to keep our seatbelts on. The going off the road and crashing economically will come next, and with the economy so fragile now, just seeing Trump lose will be harmful enough.
With Biden in office, we also have to worry about whoever he picks for VP, who may be expected to be considerably less moderate than he. Normally, this would not be much of a concern, but should his mental condition decline too much more, he won’t be the one doing much of the deciding, something he already does not seem that capable of.
While the economy will surely be harmed measurably from whatever bag of tricks Biden and Company, with the emphasis on Company, has in store for us, as long as the Republicans manage to hold the senate, they will ensure that the worst of this is kept outside the door.
However, the bigger brunt of this will be felt by the stock market. Every mischievous plan to punish the rich or big companies or one of the other ideas that have come out of the further left camp of the Democrats has had the stock market right in its sights. The stock market magnifies everything, the indirect damage, and may likely also suffer direct damage from policies designed in some way to stifle things or skim profits.
There is therefore more to this than may meet the eye. The stock market really hasn’t paid much heed to the outcome of the coming election, where you would think that they would be pricing in a good part of the perceived risk of a Biden presidency, which is almost certain.
Perhaps they don’t see it that way though, and stock markets in general are not bastions of mental prowess, so there may be many who think that Trump may actually have a 40% chance, like the betting public believes. Perhaps they haven’t considered just what sort of damage may be caused by this.
With all the hubbub surrounding COVID-19, it has perhaps been easier to not pay enough attention to the potential changes to the political climate, but this dog does bite, and it is not is no longer a matter of if it will bite the stock market, but how bad the bite will be.
The best investing always follows the money and it isn’t changing direction yet, but we need to prepare ourselves when it does to some degree. Should things turn sour, we need to be ready to step out of the way if things get bad enough that we do move into a downward trajectory, which is more likely by the day now.
2020 has already been a huge roller-coaster ride for stocks, but hang on tight, as this year’s carnival is far from over yet.