Germany’s July Exports Fall 0.8% as Import Drop Widens Trade Surplus to €21.3 Billion

Germany’s exports fell 0.8% in July from the previous month, while imports dropped 5.7%, pushing the country’s calendar and seasonally adjusted trade surplus to €21.3 billion. The surplus was €15.4 billion in June, so the monthly balance widened by €5.9 billion as inbound goods flows contracted much more sharply than outbound shipments.

Year-over-year comparisons were stronger. Exports were 6.1% higher than in July 2025, and imports were up 3.0% from a year earlier. That split matters because the July data show a short-term setback in exports rather than a year-over-year contraction in German goods trade.

Destatis, Germany’s Federal Statistical Office, reported €138.2 billion of goods exports and €116.9 billion of imports on a calendar and seasonally adjusted basis in July. The agency classified the figures as provisional, meaning later detailed releases can revise the first estimate.

Imports drive the wider July trade surplus

Most of the change in the trade balance came from the import side. Exports declined only modestly from June, but imports fell by nearly six percent. A wider surplus created this way does not by itself indicate stronger foreign demand for German products because the balance can increase when imports fall faster than exports.

Trade with the European Union accounted for much of the monthly weakness. Germany exported €78.0 billion of goods to EU member states in July, down 1.6% from June, and imported €59.6 billion, down 6.1%. Within the euro area, exports fell 2.8% to €53.9 billion and imports dropped 6.5% to €39.9 billion. Exports to EU countries outside the euro area moved in the other direction, rising 1.1% to €24.1 billion, although imports from that group still fell 5.1% to €19.6 billion.

Outside the EU, exports held up better. Shipments to third countries edged 0.2% higher to €60.2 billion, and imports from those markets fell 5.3% to €57.4 billion. Taken together, the official figures show that the July import decline was broad across both EU and non-EU trading partners even as export performance varied by destination.

Destatis also published unadjusted values for the month. On that basis, exports totaled €143.1 billion and imports €121.0 billion, producing a €22.2 billion surplus. The agency cautions against comparing adjusted and unadjusted series directly because calendar and seasonal adjustments are designed for short-term month-to-month analysis, whereas the original values serve a different statistical purpose.

U.S. rebound contrasts with weaker trade with China

By destination, July’s figures were sharply uneven. The United States was Germany’s largest export market, with calendar and seasonally adjusted shipments rising 19.1% from June to €14.4 billion. Exports to the U.S. were also 28.3% higher than in July 2025. Imports from the United States moved the opposite way month to month, falling 8.2% to €7.9 billion.

China showed a markedly different export pattern. German exports to China fell 9.5% from June to €5.6 billion, and imports from China declined 7.5% to €15.2 billion. China remained Germany’s largest source of imports in the July data. Shipments to the United Kingdom also weakened, with exports down 7.2% to €6.7 billion and imports from the U.K. down 1.0% to €3.2 billion.

Year-to-date figures add useful context to the sharp monthly moves. From January through July, total German exports were €954.2 billion, up 4.0% from the same period of 2025. Imports rose 4.2% to €828.4 billion. Over those seven months, exports to the United States were still 1.5% lower than a year earlier despite July’s large rebound. Exports to China were down 12.7%, and imports from China were 8.8% higher. Those comparisons make the July U.S. surge look more like one strong month within a volatile pattern than evidence of a settled shift in Germany’s export geography.

July pullback follows an export-led second quarter

July followed a second quarter in which exports were an important support for Germany’s economy. Destatis revised second-quarter gross domestic product growth to 0.3% from the previous quarter, up from an initial estimate of 0.2%, and said the expansion was driven mainly by good export performance. On a year-over-year basis, price-adjusted exports of goods rose 5.0% in the quarter, with particular strength in chemicals, data-processing equipment, electrical and optical products, and other transport equipment.

Forward-looking business sentiment improved after the July trade period. The ifo Institute’s export expectations index rose to 9.6 points in August from minus 2.8 in July, its highest level since February 2022. Manufacturers of electrical equipment, data-processing equipment, electronics and optical products were among the more optimistic groups, and the automotive industry also reported a brighter export outlook. The ifo survey measures expectations rather than actual goods flows, so it is a signal about business sentiment for coming months rather than a revision of the July trade data.

For now, Destatis is deliberately cautious about explaining why individual trade flows moved as they did. The agency said detailed results are not available at the time of the first monthly release, so it cannot yet provide reasons for changes in total foreign trade or trade with individual countries and country groups. The July figures remain provisional, and Destatis is scheduled to update the reference-month results with fuller detail on September 21.