Peter Thiel’s Fund Discloses Roughly 1% Vista Stake as Vaca Muerta Investment Rises

Peter Thiel’s Thiel Macro LLC disclosed 1,189,792 American Depositary Shares in Vista Energy with a value of $75.9 million at June 30, giving the technology investor’s fund a newly reported position in one of the largest oil producers operating in Argentina’s Vaca Muerta shale formation. Reuters calculated the holding at roughly 1% of Vista’s capital.

The stake comes as Vista is committing more money to its unconventional oil business after expanding its interests in Vaca Muerta. The company raised its 2026 production target and capital-spending plan in May, then reported a sharp increase in second-quarter output as newly acquired interests in Bandurria Sur and Bajo del Toro began contributing to its results.

The timing is important, but the disclosures support a narrower conclusion than a simple “Thiel bets on Argentina” narrative. Thiel Macro’s Form 13F filed with the SEC on Aug. 14 is a quarter-end holdings report. It shows the Vista position as of June 30, but does not state when the ADSs were acquired, the average purchase price, the investment thesis or whether the holding changed after the reporting date.

Thiel Macro adds Vista to a concentrated reported portfolio

The SEC information table lists 1,189,792 Vista sponsored ADSs with a reported value of $75,908,730. Vista has separately stated in its SEC disclosures that each ADS represents one Series A ordinary share. Reuters said the reported position was equivalent to about 1% of the company’s capital, so the percentage is best read as an approximate calculation rather than a figure stated by Thiel Macro in the filing itself.

Vista was the second-largest position by reported value in Thiel Macro’s June 30 13F, behind Amazon at about $118.0 million. The filing showed eight entries worth a combined $418.7 million. Apart from Amazon and Vista, the list included Vistra, American Electric Power, DTE Energy, FirstEnergy, CMS Energy and X-Energy, giving the reported portfolio a pronounced power and energy tilt at the end of the quarter.

The change from the previous quarter is also notable. Thiel Macro’s March 31 13F information table did not report a substantive Vista position and instead contained only a zero-value entry. That makes Vista a new reported holding for the June quarter, although the filing still does not identify the date or dates on which the fund established the position.

Thiel met Argentine President Javier Milei at the Casa Rosada on April 23, according to Argentina’s presidency. Foreign Minister Pablo Quirno, Matt Danzeisen of Thiel Capital and Founders Fund partner Matias Van Thienen were also listed as attendees. Neither that government notice nor the 13F filing links the meeting to the Vista investment, so the meeting is relevant timing context rather than evidence of why the fund bought the shares.

Vista raises Vaca Muerta spending after expanding its asset base

Vista’s own operating plan gives the investment a clearer business backdrop. In a May 11 update to its 2026-2028 guidance, the company said the revised outlook reflected both the consolidation of recently acquired interests in Bandurria Sur and Bajo del Toro and a higher oil-price scenario. The company began consolidating a 25.1% non-operated working interest in Bandurria Sur and a 35% non-operated interest in Bajo del Toro as of May 1.

For 2026, Vista increased its production target to 158,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day from 140,000 and raised planned capital expenditures to $1.8 billion from $1.6 billion. The step-up continues in the following two years. The new plan calls for production of 185,000 boe/d in 2027 and 208,000 boe/d in 2028, compared with previous targets of 160,000 and 180,000. Planned capex for both 2027 and 2028 rose to $1.9 billion from $1.6 billion.

That guidance should not be read as an acquisition-only uplift. Vista explicitly said its new forecast also incorporates stronger oil-price assumptions. It assumed Brent crude at $85 a barrel for the second through fourth quarters of 2026, $80 for 2027 and $75 in real January 2026 terms from 2028. Its previous guidance had assumed $65 Brent for 2026 and $70 in real January 2026 terms from 2027. The higher production and financial targets therefore reflect both a larger asset base and a more favorable commodity-price framework.

Vista also lifted its longer-range ambition. Its updated 2030 vision calls for production of 250,000 boe/d, compared with the prior Investor Day goal of more than 200,000, and recurring free cash flow of $2.0 billion versus $1.5 billion previously. Those are company targets, not guaranteed outcomes, and Vista’s own materials identify oil prices, execution, financing conditions and other operating assumptions as variables that can cause actual results to differ.

Second-quarter results show the scale of the buildout

The expansion was already visible in Vista’s latest reported quarter. Second-quarter production averaged 156,061 boe/d, up 32% from a year earlier and 16% from the first quarter. Oil production reached 135,427 barrels per day, a 33% year-over-year increase. Vista attributed 20 percentage points of the total production increase to organic growth and 12 points to the consolidation of the Bandurria Sur and Bajo del Toro interests.

The company spent $466.8 million in capital expenditures during the quarter. Of that amount, $421.4 million went to drilling, completion and workover activity in Vaca Muerta. Vista said it drilled 27 net wells, completed 24 and tied in 27 net new wells during the period. Those figures provide a more concrete measure of the investment cycle behind the higher multi-year production targets than the headline capex guidance alone.

Growth is being funded alongside acquisition-related cash requirements. Vista reported second-quarter free cash flow of $99.1 million, but said the figure would have been $491.0 million excluding payments related to the Equinor transaction. At quarter end, gross debt was $3.66 billion and net debt was $3.06 billion. The company reported a pro forma net leverage ratio of 1.25 times and a non-pro-forma ratio of 1.41 times, down from 1.93 times a year earlier on the company’s stated comparison.

For Thiel Macro, the 13F establishes only the size and value of the reportable Vista holding at one point in time. It does not show whether the fund intends to build a larger position or treat the stake as a shorter-term allocation. What is clear from Vista’s disclosures is that the company itself is entering a heavier investment phase in Vaca Muerta, with higher near-term capex, a larger production base and more ambitious output targets following its recent asset additions. Future company results and Thiel Macro’s subsequent regulatory filings will show whether those two trajectories continue in parallel.