CeMat Raises 2026 Guidance After Conditional Property Sale Agreement

CeMat A/S raised its 2026 earnings outlook after signing a conditional agreement to sell the ground-floor retail space in its Moje Bielany 1 development in Warsaw. The Danish-listed property company now expects group EBITDA of DKK 16.5 million to DKK 17.2 million this year, up from its previous range of DKK 13.8 million to DKK 14.8 million.

The sale has not yet closed. CeMat said it expects the agreement to be completed and recognised in the second half of 2026, making that closing an important condition behind the revised outlook. The company did not disclose the buyer or the agreed sale price in its announcement.

CeMat also lifted its expected 2026 net result to about DKK 9.9 million to DKK 10.9 million from DKK 8 million to DKK 9 million. Those figures exclude any valuation adjustments related to investment properties. Revenue guidance remains unchanged at DKK 86 million to DKK 88 million.

Higher development earnings drive the guidance increase

Development earnings account for the change in the forecast. CeMat now expects EBITDA from that segment of DKK 9.2 million to DKK 9.4 million, compared with the DKK 6.5 million to DKK 7 million range set out in its 2025 annual report. The property rental business is still expected to generate EBITDA of DKK 7.3 million to DKK 7.8 million.

At the midpoint of the ranges, group EBITDA guidance has risen by about DKK 2.55 million, or roughly 18%, while the midpoint for development EBITDA has increased by the same DKK amount. The midpoint of the expected net result is about DKK 1.9 million higher than before. The unchanged revenue range means the latest revision is concentrated in profitability rather than a higher top-line forecast.

That change follows further progress at Moje Bielany 1. CeMat said 103 of the project’s 105 apartments have been sold and the remaining two have been reserved. The retail component covers 1,306 square metres and is fully leased to Biedronka, Maxi Zoo and a restaurant operator. According to the company, the most recent restaurant lease brought the commercial space to full occupancy.

Project-level economics have improved as well, narrowing the gap between CeMat’s 2026 development expectations and the outcome it now anticipates from the completed project. In February, management had forecast DKK 37 million to DKK 39 million of total EBITDA from Moje Bielany 1 and a project margin of 21% to 22%. The new announcement raises those estimates to about DKK 41 million of EBITDA and a margin of roughly 23.5%.

Retail sale remains conditional

A key qualification is that the retail sale is still pending. CeMat described the agreement as conditional and said completion and accounting recognition are expected in the second half of the year. Until the conditions are satisfied and the sale closes, the proceeds and related earnings remain expected rather than realised.

No details were provided on the conditions attached to the agreement, the purchaser, the sale price or the expected closing date. That leaves investors with a clearer earnings range but limited information on the mechanics of the disposal itself. The company’s wording also matters because the revised forecast already assumes the retail component will be completed and recognised during 2026.

Built as part of the mixed-use Moje Bielany 1 project, the retail space was completed by CeMat in 2025. The residential portion totals 5,727 square metres. Management had previously said it intended to lease the ground-floor commercial units and then sell that part of the development as an investment property, so the conditional agreement advances an objective that was already included in the company’s 2026 plan.

CeMat’s latest estimate puts the total sales value of Moje Bielany 1 at approximately DKK 173 million. The higher expected EBITDA of about DKK 41 million implies the project has outperformed the profitability range management was using earlier this year. The company did not break out how much of the improvement comes specifically from the retail disposal versus apartment sales, leasing progress or other project-level effects.

Moje Bielany 1 sets the benchmark for the next phases

Moje Bielany 1 is also being used as a reference point for CeMat’s next projects in Warsaw’s Bielany district. The company said it has secured planning approvals for two additional residential phases comprising a total of 232 apartments, along with a self-storage facility.

For Moje Bielany 3, CeMat said the project budget assumes a profit margin broadly comparable with the level now expected for Moje Bielany 1. That comparison is meaningful because the first phase’s expected margin has moved up to roughly 23.5%, giving management a stronger completed-project benchmark as it prepares the next stage of development.

Rental EBITDA and revenue expectations, by contrast, are unchanged. The guidance revision does not raise the DKK 86 million to DKK 88 million revenue range. Instead, the central change is the expected profitability of the development segment, supported by apartment sales, full occupancy of the retail space and the conditional agreement to sell that commercial component.

CeMat is scheduled to publish its interim report for the first half of 2026 on August 26. That report will provide the next formal financial update, but the key assumption behind Saturday’s guidance revision extends beyond the half-year period: the conditional retail sale is expected to close and be recognised in the second half of 2026. A delay or failure to satisfy the conditions could therefore change the timing now embedded in management’s outlook.