U.S. Consumer Confidence Rebounds to 91.7 in October After Four Monthly Declines

U.S. consumer confidence rebounded in October after four consecutive monthly declines, with The Conference Board’s headline index rising 7.5 points to 91.7. September’s reading was revised up to 84.2 from the initially reported 81.9, giving the latest increase a firmer starting point than the original September number suggested.

The result, released Tuesday, October 27, was stronger than the roughly 81 reading expected by economists polled by Reuters. It followed a September slump that had taken confidence to its weakest level in more than a decade. The improvement offers some relief after a difficult late summer, but it does not mean households have stopped worrying about the cost of living.

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Survey measures views of current business and employment conditions alongside expectations for income, jobs and the economy over the coming six months. Its headline index uses 1985 as the reference year, set at 100. A reading of 91.7 is an index level, not the percentage of Americans who say they are confident.

Current conditions recover faster than the six-month outlook

Both major parts of the survey improved, although the gap between them remained wide. The Present Situation Index, which reflects how respondents assess business and labor-market conditions today, rose 8.6 points to 120.4. The Expectations Index, covering their outlook for the next six months, increased 6.9 points to 72.6. The revised September readings were 111.8 and 65.7, respectively.

That difference matters for interpreting the rebound. Americans became more positive about conditions they can see now, but their assessment of what lies ahead remained considerably weaker. The Conference Board has historically treated an Expectations Index below 80 as a warning associated with recession risk. October’s increase did not lift the gauge above that level, and the threshold is not a forecast that a recession will necessarily occur.

The October rise also interrupted a longer slide in the overall confidence measure. The headline index declined in June, July, August and September before turning higher this month. The three-month losing streak sometimes cited in descriptions of the earlier reports applies to the Expectations Index through September, rather than the full headline index. Keeping those two series separate is important when describing how abruptly household views have changed.

Comments collected during the October survey, which covered October 1 through October 21, still showed frustration with household expenses. Fergus McCormick, a senior economist at The Conference Board, said the improvement coincided with lower retail gasoline prices. He also noted that responses continued to refer frequently to expensive groceries, energy and other everyday purchases. The higher index therefore describes an improvement from September, not an absence of financial strain.

Cheaper gasoline helps, but inflation remains a constraint

The timing of the survey coincided with some relief at the pump. AAA’s national average for regular gasoline was about $4.27 a gallon on October 27, down from roughly $4.48 a month earlier. A year ago, the average was about $3.05. That leaves gasoline more than a dollar per gallon costlier than at the same point in 2025, even after the recent decline.

A monthly drop in gasoline prices can quickly change how households feel about their budgets because fuel purchases are frequent and highly visible. It is less clear how much of the confidence rebound can be attributed to that change alone. The survey measures attitudes, and the overlapping movement in gasoline prices does not establish that lower prices caused the full 7.5-point increase.

The broader inflation picture remains difficult. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ September Consumer Price Index report, consumer prices rose 3.7% from a year earlier and 0.6% from August on a seasonally adjusted basis. Energy prices were up 20.4% over the year, while the gasoline index rose 34.2%. Those figures help explain why a modest decline at the pump in October has not erased concerns about affordability.

Prices and inflation rates also tell different stories. A slower monthly increase, or a decline in one category, does not reverse the cumulative price rises households have already absorbed. Families can welcome a cheaper tank of gasoline while still facing higher bills for other essentials. That distinction is consistent with an October survey showing better confidence alongside continued dissatisfaction with living costs.

The spending picture remains mixed ahead of the Fed decision

There is no direct promise of stronger retail sales in the confidence figure. Households may report a brighter outlook yet still delay furniture, appliances, vehicles or discretionary travel when borrowing costs and bills leave little room in their budgets. The Conference Board’s September survey had already shown weaker intentions to buy homes and automobiles and more restrained plans for several services. October’s reported improvement in attitudes should not be treated as a reversal of every spending concern.

A separate monthly measure underscores that caution. The University of Michigan’s final October consumer sentiment index stood at 48.0, barely changed from 48.1 in September. Its survey also put expected inflation over the next year at 4.7%, up from 4.6% a month earlier. The two surveys ask different questions and use different scales, so their index levels are not directly comparable. Their readings can nevertheless help distinguish a month-to-month recovery in one measure from the wider pressures households continue to describe.

Higher borrowing costs add another complication. In September, the Federal Reserve raised its target federal funds rate by a quarter percentage point to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%, citing elevated inflation. Changes to that benchmark influence financing conditions over time, although the rates consumers actually pay on credit cards, auto loans and mortgages depend on more than the Fed’s target alone. The confidence report offers one piece of evidence for policymakers, not a sufficient basis for predicting their next decision.

The immediate economic calendar provides more concrete tests. The Federal Open Market Committee is scheduled to conclude its two-day meeting on October 28, and the Bureau of Economic Analysis plans to publish September personal income and spending figures on October 29. Those data will help show whether actual household purchasing power and outlays are moving in the same direction as the October improvement in confidence.