U.S. Consumer Confidence Drops to 81.9, Lowest Since 2014

U.S. consumer confidence fell sharply in September, pushing The Conference Board’s headline index to 81.9, its weakest reading since 2014. The index dropped 6.7 points from a downwardly revised 88.6 in August, extending a deterioration that has left households less upbeat about both current conditions and the months ahead.

The September survey showed broad weakening rather than a decline confined to one question. Consumers became more negative about business conditions, less positive about the labor market and more cautious about household income prospects. The survey was conducted from September 1 through September 23, a period that included the Federal Reserve’s September rate increase and continued geopolitical tensions, although the survey itself does not establish that either event caused the decline.

Views of jobs and business conditions weakened

According to The Conference Board’s September release, the Present Situation Index fell 7.9 points to 109.3, while the Expectations Index declined 5.9 points to 63.6. The expectations gauge, which measures consumers’ six-month outlook for income, business conditions and the labor market, has now fallen for three consecutive months.

The deterioration was visible in the survey’s underlying measures. Net assessments of current business conditions fell 3.4 percentage points to negative 1.9%, meaning the share of respondents describing conditions as bad exceeded the share calling them good. The Conference Board said that was the first negative reading for that measure since September 2024. Its labor-market differential, calculated as the share saying jobs are plentiful minus the share saying jobs are hard to get, dropped 2.5 percentage points to positive 1.7%.

Expectations were weaker as well. Net expectations for business conditions over the next six months declined to negative 9.5%, while the comparable measure for the labor market fell to negative 14.4%. Consumers still expected household income to rise on balance, but that measure dropped 3.0 percentage points to positive 2.5%.

The historical comparison underscores how low the headline reading has become. A Conference Board survey table from 2014 shows the index at 81.7 in April of that year, 82.2 in May and 85.2 in June. September 2026’s 81.9 therefore sits below the May and June 2014 readings and only slightly above April 2014, placing confidence at its weakest level since that period.

The confidence survey measures households’ perceptions and expectations, not the labor market directly. The latest Bureau of Labor Statistics employment report showed nonfarm payrolls rising by 162,000 in August and the unemployment rate holding at 4.1%. That distinction matters because a worsening view of job availability can precede, accompany or simply reflect concern about economic conditions without by itself showing that employment has already contracted.

Inflation and interest-rate worries intensified

Price concerns were prominent in September. The Conference Board said write-in responses increasingly mentioned prices, the high cost of goods and services, and oil and gas prices in particular. Its measure of average 12-month inflation expectations rose 0.3 percentage point to 6.1%, while the median expectation increased by the same amount to 5.1%.

Official price data provide context for those concerns. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% in August and was 3.4% higher than a year earlier. Gasoline prices increased 3.9% during the month and were up 27.4% from August 2025, while the broader energy index was 16.3% higher over the year. Those figures do not prove why survey respondents became more pessimistic, but they are consistent with the Conference Board’s finding that fuel and other price references became more frequent.

Interest-rate expectations also shifted. The share of consumers who expected rates to be higher over the next 12 months jumped 5.2 percentage points to 68.4%. During the survey window, the Federal Reserve raised the target range for the federal funds rate by a quarter percentage point to 3.75% to 4.00% on September 16, saying inflation remained elevated. The Conference Board noted that the rate increase occurred during its survey period, but it did not attribute the full confidence decline to monetary policy.

Households also reported more strain in their own finances. Net views of families’ current financial situations turned negative in September as the share describing their finances as bad moved above the share calling them good. The Conference Board said this was only the second time that had happened since it introduced the question four years ago. Expectations for family finances six months ahead also became somewhat less optimistic.

Purchase plans softened as households became more cautious

The weaker mood was beginning to show in spending intentions, although the survey measures plans rather than completed purchases. On a six-month moving-average basis, plans to buy automobiles and homes both declined slightly in September. Expected spending on services over the next six months also pulled back again, with planned discretionary spending moderating across areas including hotels for personal travel, movies, airfare and amusement parks.

Consumers still identified restaurants, takeout, streaming and mobile services, personal care, utilities and healthcare among their leading service-spending priorities. That mix suggests households have not stopped planning to spend, but the survey points to a more selective approach as confidence in the economy and family finances weakens.

Recession concern also moved in a more cautious direction. The share of respondents who considered a U.S. recession over the next 12 months somewhat likely increased, while the share saying a recession was not likely declined. The Conference Board specifies that those recession questions are not used in calculating the Consumer Confidence Index, so they provide additional sentiment context rather than mechanically explaining the 81.9 reading.

The next major tests of the survey’s darker labor and price outlook will come from hard economic data. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release the September employment report on October 2 and the September Consumer Price Index on October 14. Those reports will show whether the weakening in household confidence is accompanied by a material change in hiring, unemployment or inflation.