Spain Inflation Holds at 4.9% in October as Core Stays at 3.1%

Spain’s annual consumer inflation held at 4.9% in October, matching September’s rate even as prices increased over the month, according to a flash estimate released by the National Statistics Institute (INE) on Friday. Core inflation, which excludes energy and unprocessed food, was also unchanged at 3.1%.

The reading marks a pause in the acceleration of inflation rather than a decline. Spain’s annual headline rate had climbed from 3.2% in June to 3.6% in July, 4.3% in August and 4.9% in September. INE described September’s final reading as the highest since February 2023. October’s preliminary estimate remained at that elevated level.

Consumer prices increased 0.6% in October from September, compared with a 0.3% monthly rise in September. The distinction matters: the 4.9% annual rate measures the change since October 2025, while the monthly figure records what happened in the latest month. Holding the annual rate steady does not mean the cost of the measured basket stopped increasing.

Vehicle fuel eases pressure, but gas and holidays offset it

The October advance release identified vehicle fuels and lubricants as a downward influence on annual inflation. Prices in that category fell more sharply than in October 2025, reducing their contribution to the overall rate. Food and nonalcoholic drinks and clothing also exerted downward pressure because their prices rose less than in the comparable period last year, INE said.

That does not mean prices were falling across the board. A category can pull down the annual inflation rate when its rate of increase slows, even if consumers are still paying more than they did previously. The flash report describes the direction of these effects but does not provide the detailed component breakdown available in the final CPI release.

Other categories moved in the opposite direction. Package-holiday prices declined by less than in October 2025. Gas prices rose more strongly than a year earlier, while liquid fuels increased after having fallen in the comparable month last year. These developments helped counter the disinflationary effect from vehicle fuel. The differing patterns show why it would be inaccurate to say energy prices moved uniformly in October.

Fuel had helped drive the previous month’s inflation surge. In September, INE said private-vehicle fuel and lubricant prices increased even though they had fallen during September 2025. Package holidays also became a source of upward pressure because their prices dropped less than a year earlier. October reversed part of that vehicle-fuel comparison without taking the broader inflation rate below September’s figure.

Core inflation remains at 3.1% as monthly prices rise

The 3.1% core rate was unchanged from September, when it had risen two-tenths of a percentage point from 2.9% in August. October therefore brought no fresh decline in underlying annual inflation. Excluding energy and unprocessed food helps filter out some volatile components, although the core index still reflects many goods and services households routinely buy.

INE’s advance data put the monthly increase in core prices at 0.5%. That is not an annualised reading and cannot be treated as a forecast for the coming year. It does indicate that prices excluding energy and unprocessed food increased during October, even though the annual rate for that measure did not change.

Spain’s harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP), which follows a common framework for comparing inflation across European Union countries, was estimated to have risen 4.9% over 12 months. That was one-tenth of a percentage point below September’s 5.0%. The harmonised measure increased 0.5% month on month, and its core annual rate was also 3.1%, according to INE.

The matching 4.9% headline readings for the domestic CPI and harmonised index should not obscure their different purposes. National CPI follows the prices paid by households resident in Spain under its domestic statistical framework. HICP is designed for international comparisons, including those used by the European Central Bank. Identical rounded rates in one month do not mean the two indexes are interchangeable.

The most recent completed euro-area comparison was for September. Eurostat recorded euro-area annual HICP inflation of 3.8% that month, against Spain’s 5.0%, a gap of 1.2 percentage points on the same measurement basis. Comparing Spain’s October estimate directly with the euro area’s September figure, however, would mix different reporting periods and give a misleading impression of the current gap.

ECB holds rates while Spain’s economy continues to expand

Spain’s figures arrived one day after the European Central Bank left its key interest rates unchanged on October 29. The deposit-facility rate remained at 2.50%, the main refinancing rate at 2.65% and the marginal lending rate at 2.90%. The ECB reiterated its goal of bringing euro-area inflation back to 2% over the medium term.

The ECB said higher energy prices posed an upside risk to inflation and a downside risk to growth, and that tighter financing conditions could weigh on both. It also said underlying inflation in the euro area had remained broadly stable, with wages showing no material response to the energy shock at that stage. Policymakers described their approach as dependent on incoming data, without committing to a predetermined interest-rate path.

Spain’s figures are relevant to that debate but cannot, by themselves, determine ECB policy. The central bank sets one monetary policy for the currency union, where national inflation rates differ. September’s harmonised data placed Spain above the euro-area average, making the next region-wide release useful for assessing whether that gap has narrowed or widened.

A separate preliminary INE release on Friday showed that Spain’s economy expanded 0.6% in the third quarter from the previous three months, following 0.7% growth in the second quarter. Output rose 2.7% from a year earlier. Household consumption grew 0.6% quarter on quarter, according to the advance GDP figures, providing context for an economy still expanding amid elevated price pressures.

Those growth figures do not erase the pressure from higher consumer prices. GDP growth measures changes in inflation-adjusted economic activity, whereas CPI measures changes in the price of a household consumption basket. Taken together, the releases show that output was growing as consumer inflation remained high. They do not establish how purchasing power changed for every household.

More detailed inflation figures are still to come. INE said it would publish the final October data in November. Eurostat has scheduled its euro-area flash inflation estimate for October for November 4, providing the next same-month benchmark for comparing Spain with the wider currency union.