Norway Cuts 2026 Oil and Gas Investment Estimate to NOK 266 Billion

Norway’s oil and gas producers have lowered their estimated investment in extraction and pipeline transportation for 2026 to NOK 266 billion, a reduction of about NOK 9 billion from the previous quarterly survey. The new forecast points to a modest decline in spending after several years of heavy offshore development activity.

The revision is not accompanied by an across-the-board reduction in future spending plans. Operators raised their estimate for 2027 to NOK 237 billion from roughly NOK 227 billion, although the latest figures still indicate a further year-on-year decline when forecasts are compared at the same stage of the annual survey.

Figures published November 12 by Statistics Norway put the unrounded 2026 estimate at NOK 265.5 billion, compared with NOK 274.5 billion in August. The survey reflects spending plans reported by companies operating on the Norwegian continental shelf, rather than a government decision to reduce investment or a final account of expenditure.

2026 forecast reverses the previous quarter’s increase

The latest adjustment amounts to a 3.3% reduction from the August estimate. At that time, planned investment for 2026 had risen to nearly NOK 275 billion, supported by higher spending intentions for producing fields. November’s figures reverse that increase as companies report lower outlays for fields already in operation and for developments still being built.

On a comparable survey basis, Norway now expects oil and gas investment to fall 3.4% in nominal terms in 2026 from 2025. The previous survey had indicated an almost unchanged investment level, with a decline of just 0.1%. The figures are measured in current Norwegian kroner, so they should not be read as inflation-adjusted changes in the volume of work.

The smaller 2026 estimate comes after a substantial investment cycle. Statistics Norway’s annual survey series shows estimated expenditure rising from around NOK 175 billion in 2022 to about NOK 275 billion in 2025, before the projected retreat this year. The scale of that earlier increase is important: spending remains high by the standards of the years before the latest construction wave, even though the direction has turned downward.

The survey covers exploration and concept studies, new field developments, producing fields, onshore work associated with petroleum activity, shutdown and removal, and pipeline transport. These categories do not necessarily move together. A development nearing completion can require less capital at the same time that its operating field needs new wells or maintenance investment.

Exploration and field development account for the slowdown

Exploration is one of the clearest sources of weakness in the year-on-year comparison. The statistics agency estimates investment in exploration and concept studies will be about 21% lower in 2026 than in 2025. In its breakdown of contributions to the overall 3.4% decline, that category subtracts 2.7 percentage points, more than any other individual category.

Lower spending on producing fields and field development reduces the comparison by another 1.3 and 1.2 percentage points, respectively. Pipeline transportation also makes a negative contribution. Its investment estimate is down about 37% from the comparable forecast a year earlier, although pipelines account for a relatively small share of the industry’s total investment.

Shutdown and removal work is moving in the opposite direction. Spending on taking facilities out of service and removing infrastructure contributes 2.3 percentage points to the annual change, partly offsetting declines elsewhere. The contrasting movements show why the overall forecast is less negative than the exploration numbers alone might suggest.

The broader retreat in development spending reflects the timing of projects. A large group of offshore plans was launched near the end of 2022, when a temporary petroleum tax package encouraged companies to submit development plans before a deadline. Several smaller projects have since been completed and started production. The biggest remain under construction, but many are expected to reach completion in 2027, reducing the work left to capitalize as construction winds down.

According to Statistics Norway, development spending leveled off in the first half of 2026 and fell substantially in the third quarter. Few new developments have begun at a pace sufficient to replace all of the projects moving toward production. That pattern helps explain why strong investment in recent years does not necessarily translate into equally high spending in the years ahead.

Higher project costs lift the 2027 estimate

The 2027 revision moves in the opposite direction from 2026. The latest projection is NOK 236.6 billion, up approximately NOK 9.2 billion, or 4%, from the previous estimate of NOK 227.4 billion. The increase is concentrated in field development and exploration, while the estimate for producing fields was reduced from August.

Higher expected costs on certain ongoing developments are a major reason for the upward adjustment. Statistics Norway said the annual cost review conducted alongside the national budget found that the total estimated cost of projects under development had risen by about NOK 35 billion, measured in 2026 kroner, since the previous autumn. That figure refers to the aggregate cost of those projects, not an additional NOK 35 billion of investment scheduled specifically for 2027.

The agency identified several drivers of the revisions, including expenditure intended to keep planned production start dates on track, exchange-rate effects, greater work requirements at some projects and additional discoveries incorporated into existing development plans. Some of the costs had already appeared in earlier surveys, with further amounts reflected in the latest responses.

Despite the increase in the 2027 forecast, the annual outlook is weaker when measured consistently. The newest 2027 figure is 4.8% below the estimate companies gave for 2026 at the same point a year earlier. In August, the corresponding comparison had suggested a decline of only 0.9%. Those like-for-like comparisons are more informative than simply subtracting the 2027 early estimate from the more mature 2026 estimate, because investment plans tend to change as a spending year approaches.

Field developments and the winding down of shutdown-and-removal expenditure are expected to weigh on 2027, while planned spending on fields already producing oil and gas should provide an offset. New development decisions could raise next year’s estimate further, but such additions are not included until companies report them in subsequent surveys.

Fourth-quarter spending will test the 2026 projection

The latest figures also show that the 2026 estimate relies on a relatively strong final quarter. Actual unadjusted investment dropped 10% between the second and third quarters to NOK 62.3 billion. On a seasonally adjusted basis, spending fell 6.5%, and third-quarter expenditure was 18% below the amount companies had previously projected for that period.

About NOK 193 billion was invested during the first nine months of 2026, according to the agency. To reach the full-year estimate of approximately NOK 266 billion, spending would need to total about NOK 73 billion in the fourth quarter, an unadjusted increase of roughly 16% from the third quarter.

Such an increase is possible, since Norwegian offshore investment often peaks late in the year, but it would be stronger than recent seasonal patterns. Statistics Norway calculates that fourth-quarter spending has risen by an average of 7.7% from the preceding quarter over the past five years. The increase in the final quarter of 2025 was 3.7%.

The statistics agency also notes a tendency for late-year investment forecasts to exceed the final amount spent. Over the past 21 years, estimates published in November of the investment year have averaged 2.2% above eventual expenditure. The outcome may differ this time, particularly if work delayed from the third quarter is completed before year-end, but the comparison underlines that NOK 266 billion remains an estimate rather than a settled total.

The next updates will show how much of the planned offshore work is carried out before year-end and how the pipeline of 2027 projects develops. The distinction matters for Norway’s investment outlook: a lower spending forecast can reflect projects being completed, delayed activity, or fewer new projects starting, and the survey indicates that all three timing questions warrant attention as this investment cycle matures.