Humana Raises 2026 Adjusted Earnings Outlook to at Least $9.50 a Share

Humana raised its full-year 2026 adjusted earnings outlook on Friday, saying it now expects adjusted earnings per share of at least $9.50, up from its previous forecast of at least $9.00. The increase came with the company’s third-quarter results, which showed a quarter that was still pressured in some areas but modestly better than management had expected in its core insurance business.

The Louisville-based insurer reported third-quarter revenue of $41.16 billion, up from $32.65 billion a year earlier. On a GAAP basis, diluted earnings per share were $1.33 for the quarter. On an adjusted basis, Humana posted a loss of $0.70 a share. For the first nine months of 2026, the company reported GAAP earnings per share of $16.84 and adjusted earnings per share of $17.17.

The updated outlook matters because Humana had spent much of the year defending profitability targets against pressure from Medicare Advantage reimbursement, quality ratings and shifting medical-cost trends. A move from at least $9.00 to at least $9.50 does not erase those broader issues, but it does signal that management now sees a somewhat better earnings path for the rest of the year than it did just a month ago.

Guidance moved higher after insurance results beat management’s own target

In its third-quarter earnings release, Humana said its insurance segment posted a GAAP benefit ratio of 93.7% in the quarter. That was favorable to management’s guidance of “slightly above 94 percent,” an important detail because the medical benefit ratio is one of the clearest indicators of how claims costs are tracking against premiums.

A lower benefit ratio generally means an insurer kept more of every premium dollar after paying medical claims. Humana did not suggest that pressure has disappeared, and its updated adjusted earnings outlook still points to a steep decline from the $17.14 in adjusted earnings per share it reported for full-year 2025. Even so, the quarter gave management enough confidence to raise adjusted guidance by 50 cents a share.

The company also sharply increased its GAAP earnings outlook. Humana now expects 2026 GAAP earnings per share of at least $15.09, up from a previous estimate of at least $6.52. That larger swing reflects not only operating performance but also several items that separate GAAP and adjusted results, including valuation adjustments tied to minority-interest investments, value-creation initiatives, impairment charges, and a newly disclosed option liability connected to its strategic joint venture with HPS Investment Partners, a subsidiary of BlackRock, and CenterWell Senior Primary Care.

For investors, the main point is that the adjusted guidance change carries more weight as a read on the underlying operating picture than the GAAP revision alone. Humana uses the adjusted figure to strip out items it says are not part of core ongoing performance, while the GAAP figure captures the full accounting effect of those items.

Quarterly numbers still show pressure beneath the headline outlook increase

The higher full-year target does not mean the quarter was uniformly strong. Humana’s adjusted result for the third quarter was still a loss of $0.70 a share, compared with adjusted earnings of $0.32 a share in the year-earlier period. That reversal shows how much pressure remains on the business despite the guidance increase.

Revenue growth was substantial, climbing to $41.16 billion from $32.65 billion in the prior-year quarter, and that helped frame the earnings discussion. Yet scale alone was not enough to fully protect margins. Health insurers have spent the past two years wrestling with elevated medical utilization, especially in government-backed coverage lines, and Humana’s results show that profitability remains more complicated than top-line growth.

The company’s 2026 adjusted outlook also still implies a much weaker year than 2025. Humana said the guidance continues to reflect a year-over-year decline because of the Star Ratings headwind for Bonus Year 2026, net of mitigation efforts. In practical terms, that means the company is still contending with a structural earnings drag tied to its Medicare business even after this latest upward revision.

Management’s update therefore looks more like an incremental improvement than a wholesale reset of the 2026 story. Investors who focus only on the change from $9.00 to $9.50 could miss that point. The revised target is better than before, but it remains far below last year’s adjusted result and still sits inside a business environment that management has repeatedly described as challenging.

CenterWell and Medicaid growth remain important supports for the year

Alongside the earnings revision, Humana pointed to continued expansion in two areas it has increasingly emphasized: CenterWell and Medicaid. The company said year-to-date patient growth in CenterWell Senior Primary Care reached 146,800, or 30%, while year-to-date Medicaid membership growth reached 103,600, or 7%.

Those figures matter because they show where Humana is trying to build operating momentum while its Medicare economics remain under pressure. CenterWell has become a central part of the company’s long-term pitch to investors, tying insurance membership more closely to care delivery. The company also said its recently announced venture with BlackRock replaced previous joint ventures with Welsh, Carson, Anderson & Stowe, a change Humana said improves balance-sheet efficiency, offers greater financial flexibility and lowers its cost of capital while funding future growth.

None of that changes the fact that near-term investor attention will stay fixed on earnings durability, medical-cost control and how much of the recent pressure in Medicare Advantage proves temporary rather than structural. Still, Friday’s release gives Humana a somewhat firmer footing heading into the final stretch of the year by showing that its benefit ratio held up better than its own guidance suggested and that management was prepared to formalize that improvement in a higher adjusted outlook.

Humana said it posted prepared management remarks to its investor-relations site ahead of an 8:00 a.m. Eastern time question-and-answer session for analysts, where investors were likely to press for more detail on the drivers behind the guidance increase and the sustainability of that improvement into 2027.