Pfizer Raises 2026 Revenue and Earnings Outlook After $16.6 Billion Third Quarter

Pfizer raised its full-year 2026 revenue and adjusted earnings forecasts Tuesday after reporting $16.58 billion in third-quarter sales. The company now expects revenue of $62 billion to $64 billion and adjusted diluted earnings of $2.95 to $3.05 per share, citing stronger performance from medicines outside its declining COVID-19 business.

The higher projections follow a more uneven quarter than the headline might suggest. Total revenue was $71 million below the $16.65 billion recorded a year earlier, and Pfizer described operational sales as roughly flat. Reported diluted earnings fell to $0.56 per share from $0.62, whereas adjusted diluted earnings held steady at $0.87. Pfizer’s adjusted metric excludes certain expenses included in U.S. GAAP results, making the distinction important when assessing the company’s underlying performance.

Eliquis and oncology drugs offset declines in COVID products

Sales outside COVID-19 provide the clearest explanation for the upgraded outlook. Excluding Comirnaty and Paxlovid, revenue increased 7% on an operational basis, which removes currency effects. Pfizer said in its third-quarter earnings release that a defined group of recently launched and acquired products delivered 32% operational growth. That faster rate applies to a selected part of the portfolio, not to companywide revenue.

Eliquis, the blood thinner marketed with Bristol Myers Squibb, contributed a $513 million increase in sales, or 25% operational growth. Pfizer attributed the rise primarily to higher U.S. net prices, including lower rebates and a more favorable mix of distribution channels, as well as greater demand worldwide. Generic competition and pricing pressure in certain international markets partly offset those gains. The distinction matters because the U.S. price benefit is not the same thing as a comparable increase in the number of prescriptions.

Among cancer treatments, Padcev added $255 million, a 55% operational increase. Pfizer cited stronger market share in first-line treatment of advanced urothelial cancer and uptake in another bladder-cancer indication. Lorbrena, used for certain lung cancers, gained $114 million, or 43%. Other medicines supported the quarter: the Vyndaqel family of heart-disease therapies added $193 million, or 12% operationally, while migraine treatment Nurtec ODT/Vydura rose $135 million, or 33%.

The largest offsets came from Pfizer’s COVID products. Revenue from Paxlovid fell $771 million, or 63% operationally, largely because of fewer infections. Comirnaty vaccine sales declined $339 million, or 29%, with Pfizer citing factors including narrower U.S. vaccine recommendations, lower utilization and fewer overseas contractual deliveries. Combined, the declines in these two products exceeded $1.1 billion compared with the year-earlier quarter.

The Prevnar pneumococcal vaccine family was another drag, losing $180 million in revenue, or 10% operationally. Pfizer pointed to lower U.S. vaccination rates, weaker adult market share and softer pediatric demand in some countries. The contrast between the growing medicines portfolio and these vaccine and COVID-related declines explains why stronger sales from individual brands did not translate into higher total quarterly revenue.

Higher guidance comes after mixed year-to-date results

Each end of Pfizer’s full-year revenue range moved up $1.5 billion from the prior $60.5 billion to $62.5 billion outlook, putting the new midpoint at $63 billion. The adjusted earnings forecast rose from $2.80 to $3.00 per share to $2.95 to $3.05. That increases its midpoint by 10 cents to $3.00 and halves the width of the forecast range. A narrower band suggests greater precision in Pfizer’s expectations for the remainder of the year, although it does not remove the risks behind those estimates.

The first nine months show why the revision deserves a closer look. Pfizer generated $46.07 billion of revenue, up 2% from $45.02 billion a year earlier, but adjusted diluted earnings declined to $2.39 per share from $2.56. Reported diluted earnings fell to $0.99 from $1.65. Higher annual guidance therefore reflects Pfizer’s revised expectations for the full year, not an improvement in every earnings measure already reported.

The adjusted earnings outlook includes a $650 million one-time acquired in-process research and development charge tied to an in-licensing and collaboration agreement with Innovent Biologics. Recorded in the third quarter, the expense had an estimated unfavorable impact of approximately 10 cents per share on the full-year adjusted earnings forecast. Pfizer said the revised ranges also take account of its year-to-date results and ongoing cost-improvement efforts. It does not provide a corresponding GAAP earnings forecast because unusual items and certain acquisition-related costs cannot be predicted with reasonable certainty.

The outlook also factors in an estimated $1.1 billion reduction in revenue from recent and expected generic or biosimilar competition. Pfizer excludes business-development agreements not completed by November 3 from its projections. Those limits are consequential for a company investing in new products to offset sales erosion in parts of its existing portfolio.

Research investment rises as Pfizer prioritizes debt reduction

Research spending remains a large part of the earnings picture. Pfizer’s reported third-quarter R&D expenses climbed 18% to $3.02 billion from $2.55 billion, mainly reflecting planned spending on oncology and obesity candidates and higher personnel costs. Full-year adjusted R&D spending is now projected at $10.8 billion to $11.8 billion, up from $10.5 billion to $11.5 billion. In a separate sign of operating efficiency, cost of sales declined to 24.3% of revenue from 25.0%, helped by product mix and currency effects.

Pfizer also reported eight starts of pivotal studies, one pivotal study readout and two regulatory decisions among recent research milestones. Its update cited U.S. approvals expanding the uses of Talzenna in prostate cancer and Tukysa in breast cancer. Those developments are relevant to future growth but are not evidence of a specific future sales contribution: outcomes will depend on approvals where still needed, prescribing decisions and how widely treatments are adopted.

Over the first nine months, Pfizer invested about $8.3 billion in internal research projects and approximately $850 million in business development, primarily associated with the Innovent agreement. Cash dividends totaled $7.3 billion, or $1.29 per common share. Alongside those commitments, management has emphasized reducing leverage over the longer term before considering a return to share repurchases.

No shares had been repurchased in 2026 as of the earnings announcement, although $3.3 billion remained under Pfizer’s existing authorization. The adjusted earnings forecast assumes approximately 5.74 billion diluted weighted-average shares outstanding and no repurchases during the year. That means the increased earnings outlook is not based on buying back stock to reduce the share count.