U.S. Rooftop Solar Electricity Generation Has Quadrupled Over the Past Decade, EIA Says

Electricity generated by small-scale solar systems across the United States was nearly five times higher in 2025 than in 2016, according to new figures from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The agency estimated that these installations produced 92,979 gigawatt-hours (GWh) last year, compared with 18,812 GWh at the start of the period.

Solar panels on homes and other buildings have become a more substantial source of U.S. electricity. In its October 16 analysis, the EIA described small-scale solar generation as having quadrupled over the past decade, although the reported endpoints put 2025 output at approximately 4.9 times its 2016 level. The figures measure electricity produced, not the number of systems installed or the money their owners saved.

Federal statistics also cover systems beyond residential rooftops. Under the EIA definition, small-scale solar photovoltaic systems have less than 1 megawatt of generating capacity and include installations serving businesses and industrial properties. Larger utility-scale solar plants are measured separately. That distinction is important when interpreting the national increase, which describes distributed solar generation rather than all U.S. solar electricity.

Generation Rose Alongside a Large Expansion in Capacity

A much larger base of installed capacity is central to the EIA’s explanation for higher output. A separate agency capacity table shows that estimated small-scale solar photovoltaic capacity increased from 12.8 gigawatts in 2016 to 59.5 gigawatts in 2025. The figures describe different aspects of the same expansion: capacity measures how much power the systems can supply, whereas generation measures the electricity produced over time.

Homes account for most of the output, but not all of it. The residential sector generated an estimated 63,274 GWh from small-scale solar in 2025, according to the EIA’s Electric Power Monthly, representing about 68% of the broader small-scale total. Commercial and industrial installations supply the remainder. Calling the trend rooftop solar is therefore useful shorthand, but it should not be taken to mean every unit of electricity came from a household roof.

Generation also depends on how installed panels perform. Two states with similar amounts of solar capacity need not produce the same annual electricity because sunlight conditions, system orientation and other operating factors differ. The growth in capacity provides the central explanation for the longer-term rise, while the exact conversion from panels to electricity is part of the EIA’s modeling process.

California Leads, but Texas and Florida Have Expanded Rapidly

California remained the dominant small-scale solar electricity producer in 2025. Its systems generated an estimated 34,411 GWh, accounting for 37% of the national total. The state recorded an 8% increase in generation from 2024, which the EIA attributed largely to additional capacity. California’s small-scale solar capacity rose from approximately 18 gigawatts to 20 gigawatts over that period.

Arizona ranked second at 5,795 GWh, or slightly more than 6% of U.S. small-scale output. Its generation increased 6% from 2024, a more modest annual gain than the 22% jump the state recorded between 2022 and 2023. The difference illustrates how growth can vary from year to year even in markets with abundant sunlight and an established rooftop solar sector.

Texas and Florida followed in third and fourth place, with 5,408 GWh and 5,198 GWh, respectively, in 2025. Both started from much smaller generation bases in 2016: Texas produced 391 GWh that year, while Florida generated 205 GWh. By 2025, Texas output was roughly 14 times its earlier level and Florida output more than 25 times its 2016 level. Those increases helped narrow the gap with Arizona, though California still produced far more electricity from small systems than any other state.

New York placed fifth despite having less favorable solar resources than the leading Sun Belt states. The EIA cited improvements in technology and state incentive programs that supported additional installations. Its position shows that the geographical distribution of rooftop solar depends on more than the amount of sunshine a state receives.

Incentives Helped Shape Installation Decisions

The national increase did not proceed at an even pace. Generation grew 25% in 2022 from the previous year, a particularly strong annual gain that coincided with record additions to rooftop solar capacity. The EIA says the annual rate of growth has since declined, even though generation continued rising. A slower percentage increase is not the same as a fall in the amount of electricity produced.

Electricity-bill credits and other state programs have helped influence when customers install panels. California provides a clear example. Its previous Net Energy Metering 2.0 program offered more favorable compensation for electricity exported to the grid than the subsequent Net Billing Tariff. Under the California Public Utilities Commission’s rules, the successor tariff applies to customers who submitted interconnection applications on or after April 15, 2023.

Systems qualifying under the earlier program retained their existing treatment, giving some customers a reason to complete the application process before the change. The EIA identifies that transition as one factor affecting the timing of new capacity. It does not establish that the California tariff shift alone explains the national growth pattern or the state’s increase in output during 2025.

Other states have taken different approaches. The EIA points to tax incentives for rooftop solar in Arizona and to property-tax exemptions and other state or utility programs in Texas and Florida. New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts and Illinois also have incentive arrangements supporting small-scale solar. The variation helps explain why growth has reached beyond the sunniest states, without implying that any one policy provides the same economic benefit in every market.

Rooftop Production Must Often Be Estimated

Unlike electricity generated at large power plants, much of the energy produced by small rooftop systems is not directly measured as generation by the utility serving the property. Power used within a home or business can reduce electricity drawn from the grid without showing up as electricity delivered by a conventional power station. Export meters may record electricity sent back to the network, but exports are not the same as a system’s total production.

To estimate generation, the EIA draws on utility surveys covering customer counts and aggregate small-scale solar capacity. It then uses modeling tools, including the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s System Advisor Model and PVWatts, to estimate output. The agency also uses information about the tilt and orientation of solar systems in California as representative inputs for installations elsewhere.

The effect on grid measurements is already visible in some regions. In a separate June 2026 analysis, the EIA found that growing small-scale solar production helped reduce metered midday electricity demand in the New York Independent System Operator area. As solar output fell later in the day, demand for electricity measured from the grid rose more sharply. That pattern shows why rooftop production can matter to system operators even when it is not captured by conventional generation meters.

The 92,979 GWh figure should therefore be read as a nationwide estimate built from reported capacity and modeled performance, not a sum of readings from every solar installation. It establishes how far small-scale generation has expanded, while leaving questions about individual systems’ output, household savings and the precise effect of incentive programs to more targeted data and analysis.